Amplifying Public Opinion: The Policy Impact of the U.S. Environmental Movement

Abstract: Time-series data on the U.S environmental movement spanning the second half of the 20th century is used to test hypotheses derived from past work on the determinants of public policy focusing in particular on the role of protest and public opinion. An amplification model of policy impact is introduced which posits that protest impacts legislative action independent of public opinion as suggested by protest event theorists, whereas the impact of public opinion on legislative action is greater depending on the level of protest. Evidence is found for the existence of an amplification mechanism between environmental movement protest and public opinion, where public opinion impacts policy above and beyond its independent effect when protest raises the salience of the issue to legislators. These findings point to the need to restructure analyses of the impact of social movements on public policy.

The paper has been awarded two awards by the American Sociological Association in the areas of Political Sociology (winner) and Social Movements (honorable mention).