Papers

Distributions of Budget Changes in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States

By: Christian Breunig

Abstract:Recent literature on public policy in the United States argues that public and budgetary policy making is marked by a high amount of stability interspersed with dramatic change.   In this paper, I identify whether and why there are differences in the distribution of budget changes (i.e. frequency of budget stability and change) in Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States.   Building on stochastic process methods, I find that budget allocations exhibit mostly incremental changes punctuated by extreme shifts in all three cases.   In order to explain these punctuations in budget distributions, I rely on two models: partisan control of government and partisan distance of the assembly.   The two models are tested using national budgetary data across all government budget functions for Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States from fiscal years 2963-1989.   The paper finds support for the hypothesis that partisan distance of the assembly in the German and British case, whereas the American case fits the partisan control model.